2008 Woodie Awards
Open Season: my primary predictions
Dave Broker
Issue date: 1/25/08 Section: Opinions & Editorials
It's primary season! Of course, for us Wisconsinites, we will likely know who the nominees will be before our February 19 primary. Nonetheless, let's take a look at what's happening.
For Democrats, it has come down to Clinton and Obama. Despite his best efforts to be a populist, Edwards could not win in Iowa, which took the bulk of his campaign's resources, and he has been on a steady decline. Clinton was able to save her neck by winning New Hampshire, and picked up headlines by winning Nevada. The good news for Obama is that unions now feel comfortable endorsing him and polls show that his popularity among blacks (50 percent of South Carolina's Democrats) has skyrocketed since his Iowa victory.
Of course, Bill Clinton is going door to door in South Carolina's black neighborhoods, which could give his wife a tremendous boost there. This might be a tight race to the end, but I think California, rich with delegates, is the key. Polls there show Clinton has a solid lead, but polls this year have been unreliable and there's time for Obama to use his extensive outreach in the Golden State. Watch the delegate scoreboard as the race continues.
In case you're one of the 12 Republicans at Lawrence, I'll break down your race too. First of all, Romney's position is looking better, but his resources are in serious question after he dumped his personal fortune into Iowa and New Hampshire. McCain has made a triumphant return, regardless of his records on immigration, tax cuts, and campaign finance reform -- none of which sit well with many conservatives.
The libertarian Ron Paul has done much better than I expected, thanks to the most dedicated, organized and vocal base of supporters imaginable. However, no one actually expects him to win. Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani has decided to take the road less -- or, well, never -- traveled by waiting until the Florida primary on January 29 before becoming a serious contender. Frankly, his numbers aren't high in early states where you need more than name recognition. If this strategy works, pinch me.
For Democrats, it has come down to Clinton and Obama. Despite his best efforts to be a populist, Edwards could not win in Iowa, which took the bulk of his campaign's resources, and he has been on a steady decline. Clinton was able to save her neck by winning New Hampshire, and picked up headlines by winning Nevada. The good news for Obama is that unions now feel comfortable endorsing him and polls show that his popularity among blacks (50 percent of South Carolina's Democrats) has skyrocketed since his Iowa victory.
Of course, Bill Clinton is going door to door in South Carolina's black neighborhoods, which could give his wife a tremendous boost there. This might be a tight race to the end, but I think California, rich with delegates, is the key. Polls there show Clinton has a solid lead, but polls this year have been unreliable and there's time for Obama to use his extensive outreach in the Golden State. Watch the delegate scoreboard as the race continues.
In case you're one of the 12 Republicans at Lawrence, I'll break down your race too. First of all, Romney's position is looking better, but his resources are in serious question after he dumped his personal fortune into Iowa and New Hampshire. McCain has made a triumphant return, regardless of his records on immigration, tax cuts, and campaign finance reform -- none of which sit well with many conservatives.
The libertarian Ron Paul has done much better than I expected, thanks to the most dedicated, organized and vocal base of supporters imaginable. However, no one actually expects him to win. Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani has decided to take the road less -- or, well, never -- traveled by waiting until the Florida primary on January 29 before becoming a serious contender. Frankly, his numbers aren't high in early states where you need more than name recognition. If this strategy works, pinch me.
Viewing Comments 1 - 1 of 1
Nancy McKinnon
posted 1/30/08 @ 9:09 AM CST
Dave,
You are right on track with your predictions.
It is only when the Democrats regain the November vote will our economy finally shift to a more positive future. (Continued…)
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