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Here in Wisconsin, the 2023 election season is over, and it was a very good night for liberals; Dan Kelly lost overwhelmingly to Janet Protaciewicz. His concession was just petty. The liberal mayors of both Madison and Green Bay won reelection, and so did Tom Nelson here in Outagamie County. The winning streak was so good that Chicago had to eat some of that cake as well, with a progressive mayor-elect.
However, it wasn’t all victories. In Springfield, Ill., the mayoral election was close, but the conservative candidate won, and the same was the case in Oshkosh. An open Wisconsin State Senate seat was won, although narrowly, by a Republican, giving veto-proof control of the body to conservatives. However, to be fair, the seat was very Republican-leaning. Even if everybody who voted for Janet Protaciewicz and Dan Kelly voted for every state senator, the Republicans would still have won. So, what other elections are coming up in the United States? What should we pay attention to?
Most people have their eyes on the gubernatorial races in Louisiana, Kentucky and Mississippi, since they’re the most high-profile of the races.
Kentucky’s governor, Democrat Andy Beshear, is favored for re-election, even in such a solid Republican state. He’s garnered many challengers to his right, such as State Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who is endorsed by former President Donald Trump, Former United Nations Ambassador Kelly Craft and State Auditor Mike Harmon. Governor Beshear has some of the highest approval ratings in the country, and polling suggests he will win the election by a much larger margin than he did in 2019.
Louisiana currently has a Democratic governor as well, John Bel Edwards, who was elected back in 2015, and thus is term-limited. The Democratic primary is not very crowded, with former Louisiana Secretary of Transportation Shawn Wilson gaining the endorsement of Governor Edwards. Meanwhile, the Republicans are more than likely going to nominate State Attorney General Jeff Landry, who gained the endorsement of the Louisiana Republican Party, Donald Trump Jr. and several U.S. congressmen. Other Republican candidates include Majority Leader of the State Senate Sharon Hewitt and State Treasurer John Schroeder. Because this is Secretary Wilson’s first time ever running for political office and he is doing so in an overwhelmingly conservative population, Republican Jeff Landry is likely to become the 57th Governor of Louisiana.
Mississippi is probably the most interesting case here. It’s always been an overwhelmingly conservative state, pretty much since its statehood was established, and now, incumbent Governor Tate Reeves—who had a hard time getting elected back in 2019—has the potential to lose the governorship. Scandals have made Governor Reeves’ governorship incredibly tumultuous, such as the Jackson water crisis and financial corruption tied with Brett Favre. Democrats are likely to nominate their best-chance candidate from back in 2019, Brandon Presley. People love to bring up his familial relation to Elvis, but he’s a former mayor, he’s young and he is one of the only Democrats to continue winning statewide office through the Public Service Commission. He campaigns as a populist, like FDR, and he’s incredibly good at attacking Governor Reeves where it hurts most. However, it’s unlikely he would win if the election were held today because it’s exceptionally hard to unseat an incumbent governor, especially in such a conservative state. So, Governor Reeves will likely win re-election, but not by much.
Wisconsin isn’t the only Supreme Court race this year; Pennsylvania’s Democratic Chief Justice died in December of 2022, and the election is expected to be between Judge Daniel McCaffery—endorsed by the Democratic Party—and Judge Carolyn Carluccio, endorsed by the Pennsylvania GOP. Given the way Pennsylvania has been voting in recent years, there’s merit behind saying McCaffery will win the election, but since it’s an off year, maybe conservatives will put their all into this race to show once and for all that they have a place in Pennsylvania politics. Still, they’re the same people who nominated Doug Mastriano, and worse yet, they might do it again.
Overall, Democrats are going to be destroyed in the South. There may be some bright patches in Kentucky and Mississippi, but in every race not mentioned, Republicans are expected to sweep. However, Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court race will likely be in the Democrats’ favor, alongside most, if not all, high-profile mayoral elections: Boise, Idaho; Charleston, S.C.; Charlotte, N.C.; Columbus, Ohio; Dallas; Des Moines, Iowa; Houston, Texas; Indianapolis; Kansas City, Neb.; Memphis, Tenn.; Montgomery, Ala.; Nashville, Tenn.; Philadelphia; San Antonio; and Tucson, Ariz., to name just a few. In the end, Republicans and conservatives are likely to win most races in 2023, but Democrats and liberals are going to put up one hell of a fight.