This week, I’m continuing my predictions-themed articles as I take a look at the English second tier professional soccer division, known as the Championship. This division is notorious for being unpredictable, so I may be shooting my credibility in the foot on this one. The financial instability that comes with being in the second tier creates a very unstable environment. Teams seeking to get promoted mortgage their financial futures as they take on massive debts in hopes of achieving promotion. The thought is that promotion, and the riches associated with branding and TV deals in the Premier League, will be able to offset the debts clubs take on to get there. But only three teams can go up in a given season, which leaves the rest of the big spenders floundering. The result is that teams in the hunt for promotion one year can end up relegated to the third tier the very next season, and League table positions can vary massively from year to year. Teams either end up following in the footsteps of clubs like Fulham, who spent big to keep top- level players happy in the second tier and were promoted in 2021 as a result, or Derby County, who spent so much through the second half of the 2010s that they now find themselves broke and in the third division. Bearing all of this in mind, here are some (probably wrong) predictions I foresee for the 2022-23 Championship season.
My first prediction is that Norwich City get promoted–again. Unfortunately for fans like myself that are tired of seeing Norwich City yo-yo between the top two divisions in England, it looks as though they will be coming back up into the Premier League for the third time in five years. They are doing as they always do, winning games and scoring goals galore in the Championship while still lacking the quality throughout the team to be competitive when they are inevitably promoted in May. The team is chock full of players not good enough for the top flight, but far too good for the Championship. Todd Cantwell walks through defenders at this level, but has never cut it in multiple seasons in the Premier League. Josh Sargent already has 7 goals and 2 assists this season, but only managed 2 goals and 1 assist when Norwich were in the Premier League last term. Tim Krul keeps bags of clean sheets against the likes of Coventry and Bristol City, but leaks goals in the Premier League like a rusty 1980s Wisconsin pickup with the original oil pan. Max Aarons was once a top prospect, but now defends like a traffic cone in the top flight. This team simply doesn’t have what it takes to stay up, but as they sit atop the Championship table, they clearly have far too much talent to play in the second division. I predict the yo-yoing will continue.
My next prediction is for Blackburn to make the playoffs. It has been some time since Blackburn Rovers were competitive at the top level in English football; they were relegated in 2012, and haven’t been promoted since. But the feel-good factor is back at Ewood Park, with the Rovers sitting pretty in seventh and well within the conversation for teams to make the playoffs. Last season saw a step in the right direction for the club as they finished in eighth, just six points outside the playoff places. This season they look to have the quality to take that next step and make it into the top six.
Ben Brereton Diaz is once again among the league’s top scorers, with 7 to his name so far this season, and the Rovers look like a dangerous prospect on the counter attack. As a result they are either winning or losing every single match they have played this season. The key will be consistency from here on out, if the team can manage it. They have shut out their opponents six times already, but have also been shut out five times. If Blackburn can shore up their defense just a tad, or find a consistent scorer other than Brereton Diaz, they will have a real chance of making the playoff places. I back them to keep their forward progress going and sneak into sixth on around 75 points as a result of a midseason unbeaten run that perhaps puts just enough breathing room between them and seventh place.
My last prediction is for West Brom to survive the drop. Former Premier League regulars West Bromwich Albion look to be in trouble this season. Last term saw them finish a disappointing 10th after being relegated in 2021, but the fans were hoping for a quick return to the big time. The hopes were the same entering this season, but the early signs aren’t good. The team simply cannot hold a lead, winning one and drawing eight of their first 13 matches to leave them in 22nd on just eleven points. This is despite a plethora of Premier League-quality players in the squad, which is led by former Premier League regular Steve Bruce. Tom Rogic was signed from Celtic in the summer, with the expectation that he would bring a winning mentality to the club after years of dominating in Scotland and playing European football. Couple his presence with that of Martin Kelly, Jake Livermore, Grady Diangana and more, and the Albion’s league position becomes even more distressing. But the quality I have just discussed will be their salvation as well. Even with Bruce’s outdated tactics, there is simply too much quality in the squad to drop to League 1. I’m not sure by how much, but West Brom will stay up.